Test: Who wins the Edo State Gubernatorial Re-run?
This multi-outcome event covers all major party candidates for the Edo State governorship re-run. Each contract represents the probability of that candidate being declared winner by INEC.
Comments
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The momentum on this market is strong. I've been following the fundamentals closely and the current price doesn't fully reflect the probability. Expect a move toward 80% within the next 2 weeks.
Agreed. The order book depth at 65c is thin -- any large buy order will push through quickly.
I think you're overestimating the conviction here. The 7-day chart shows resistance at 72%. There's strong selling pressure there.
Running my model on this: based on historical resolution patterns for this category, fair value sits around 68%. Current price of 67% represents a ~9% edge if my assumptions are correct. Sizing accordingly with 25x leverage.
Looking at the volume profile: 73% of volume in the last 24h has been on the Yes side. The order book is also skewed 2:1 in favor of Yes. Smart money is clearly positioned here.
Just added a significant position here. The information asymmetry is massive -- most retail participants haven't priced in the latest regulatory developments. This is free money at current levels.
"Free money" -- that's what people said about Dangote at cNaira 350 too. Always DYOR.
Blucera
Building the future of digital commerce
Blucera is a cutting-edge digital solutions company specializing in e-commerce, fintech, and enterprise software solutions for businesses across Africa.
Closed-door policy roundtable with Edo State officials and key stakeholders
3-month governance research fellowship at the Edo State Policy Institute
Exclusive annual political risk analysis report from ContiSX Research
Market Details
Leverage Trading
Amplify positions up to 1000x. Higher leverage means higher returns but increased liquidation risk.
Blucera
Building the future of digital commerce
Blucera is a cutting-edge digital solutions company specializing in e-commerce, fintech, and enterprise software solutions for businesses across Africa.
Closed-door policy roundtable with Edo State officials and key stakeholders
3-month governance research fellowship at the Edo State Policy Institute
Exclusive annual political risk analysis report from ContiSX Research